Why Oil, Fertilizer, and Metals Prices Are Climbing

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Published Jun 23, 2026

Rising commodity prices can ripple through inflation, growth, and jobs, especially in developing economies. In this episode of Talking Development, World Bank Managing Director Anna Bjerde speaks with Ayhan Kose, World Bank Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group on the latest Commodity Markets Outlook and what recent developments in the Middle East could mean for energy, food, fertilizer, and metals, and for policy responses in times of crisis. Kose explains key forecasts and why the impacts extend beyond oil: fertilizer affordability, food insecurity risks, metals demand tied to AI investment and renewable energy, and what governments can do to respond effectively. Discussed in this video:

- Energy prices expected to be 24% higher this year
- Brent oil forecast at $86 (vs earlier projections)
- Fertilizer prices 30% higher, urea 60% higher
- Inflation in developing economies above 5%
- Growth in developing economies at 3.6%, many seeing weaker growth
Learn more: http://wrld.bg/zHHh50Z4qVB

00:00 Commodity Markets Outlook overview
01:14 Energy prices and oil forecast
01:44 Fertilizer prices, urea, and food security risks
02:22 Metals outlook (aluminum, copper, gold) + AI/renewables demand
03:11 Inflation impacts in developing economies
03:57 Growth impacts and fiscal constraints
05:12 What countries can do to navigate crisis
05:57 The “3 Ts” of fiscal support (timely, targeted, temporary)
06:49 Food supply and the risks of export bans
07:14 Turning crisis into reform: investment, business climate, capital
08:03 Protecting people while staying focused on growth
09:19 Summary and closing

#CommodityMarkets #Inflation #EnergyPrices #Development

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